Climatic Responses to Future Trans-Arctic Shipping

Climatic Responses to Future Trans-Arctic Shipping


Global warming is melting Arctic sea ice, thereby enabling greater maritime access to the Arctic Ocean. Emissions such as black carbon and sulfur from ships have the potential to warm the climate further by darkening snow and ice surfaces or cool the climate by promoting cloud formation. This study used a global Earth system model to simulate the climatic effects of emissions from ships crossing the Arctic Ocean from the present to 2099. We find that shipping emissions increase the formation of clouds with high liquid water content, and cause the Arctic surface air to cool nearly 1° by 2099 relative to the shipping-free Arctic. This cooling effect was amplified further by sea ice growth and reduced atmospheric water vapor. Our results illustrate the complexity of climatic responses to increased shipping in the Arctic and the need for a greater understanding of the reciprocal nature of climate and human activities. Please see more details in the published paper: Stephenson, S. R., Wang, W., Zender, C. S., Wang, H., Davis, S. J., & Rasch, P. J. (2018). Climatic Responses to Future Trans-Arctic Shipping. Geophysical Research Letters. click here.

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